Is RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr's Statement "Cash is being used less and less" True?
What is the basis of his claim?
The reality is the raw amount/volume/supply, call it what you will, of currency actually in circulation makes a lie of Adrian Orr’s testimony before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee that “physical cash is being used less and less."
So I asked the RBNZ to explain their basis:
And the RBNZ’s response. Links given below.1
Orr’s claim at first glance seems to be based on so-called research consisting of public surveys. Utter nonsense I say, but that’s my opinion at this point. It’s an old truism of statistical survey design that you design the questions to get the answer you want.
If I made 1000 transactions per year, and 999 were in cash, one electronically, and if the next year I made 998 transactions in cash, two electronically, it’s true, but meaningless, to say my electronic transactions have doubled. Obviously my cash use hasn’t halved.
The reality is Orr can make this claim based on whatever basis suits him.
In terms of absolute cash in circulation Orr’s statement is not true.
It’s easy to prove absolute cash use is increasing. Maybe on a per capita or some other basis you can make this claim. I haven’t looked. I intend to go through the RBNZ material, painful as this will be.
But it’s all “lies, dam lies, and statistics.” and why Billy G likes his number magic.
Surveys are meaningless. What’s needed is hard data on actual transactions. And I bet this data is available, somewhere. My overall suspicion is a narrative is being created here. That narrative is tied in with an absolute eradication of cash from society, of which there’s an abundance of evidence.2
See also:
Future of Money – Cash system redesign issues paper: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/consultations/banks/future-of-money/cash-system-redesign-issues-paper.pdf
Future of money – cash system redesign: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/have-your-say/2021/future-of-money-cash-system-redesign-te-moni-anamata-punaha
Summary Report: 2021 Cash Use Survey: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/notes-and-coins/future-of-cash/2021-cash-use-survey-summary-report.pdf
I’ll try and add some references as I come across them again, but for a start have a look at the work of Catherine Austin Fitts (https://home.solari.com/).
Bro thank you for this, and the work you've been doing...
Especially if it’s so f’ing hard to find a cash machine as the banks in Oz are closing ATMs and branches at a rapid rate. Pisses me off greatly. Married to a kiwi.